Data & Models Probe Economics, Inc., began as an econometric modelling shop at a U.S. university; so models and databases are an important, if not the most important, core competency of the company. Most of Probe’s models go back to "Economics 101," which taught us that prices and volumes are determined by the intersection of supply and demand curves. Probe personnel have command of, and have used successfully in business situations, some sophisticated techniques, including mixed-integer programming, dynamic optimal control theory, Rockefellar duality theory, regional input-output models, and non-linear equation estimation, but these techniques all hark back to that simple, "Economics 101" principle. Most of Probe’s modelling techniques can be found in academic journals and textbooks, but no-one, other than Probe, has applied them successfully to real chemical industry business problems. We know which techniques will work, stay within a budget and deliver results that the client can understand and use. Even though more sophisticated techniques are available, we often recommend a simpler approach for the client, in order to stay within the budget and mesh better with the client’s way of thinking and working. One of Probe’s better-developed models is for world petrochemicals. This model, which is coded into thousands of lines of linked electronic spreadsheets, can be depicted roughly as follows:     Typical of many of Probe’s models, the analysis begins at the top and proceeds downward (sometimes called a "Top-Down" approach). It begins with macro factors such as a country’s resource endowment, demographics, stage of development, political system, trade strategy and economic output (GDP). The factors drive the supply and demand for petrochemicals and polymers, as well as the development of the energy and refining sector that is so important to petrochemicals. Oil prices and resource endowments determine the level of oil and gas drilling and, ultimately, the supply of hydrocarbons for use in chemical production. Demographics and income levels determine the demand for heating oil, gasoline and other refined products, which in turn determine refinery configuration and the prices of chemical feedstocks. In the end, this methodology generates internally-consistent and reasonably-accurate forecasts of chemical supplies, demands and prices by country and region. Probe personnel have developed and successfully used similar models for chlor-alkali, other inorganic chemicals, rubber chemicals, oil and gas, uranium and a wide variety of other materials. This body of knowledge and experience positions Probe to build a model that addresses your specific business problem and provides insights and approaches that would not otherwise be apparent. In the following, we provide a list of the chemicals, polymers, hydrocarbons and economic indicators covered by various Probe models and databases. CHEMICALS, POLYMERS, HYDROCARBONS AND ECONOMIC INDICATORS COVERED IN PROBE MODELS AND DATABASES: A. Regular Multiclient Reports (1) Energy and Economic Indicators For the U.S.: GDP GDP Price Deflator U.S. Unemployment Rate Value of Dollar Crude Oil Price Natural Gas Price Electric Power Costs Price Index for Chemicals Chemical Plant Cost Index For Most Other Countries and Regions: GDP Demographics Industry Mix Motor Vehicle Registration Motor Vehicle Production Wood Pulp Production Alumina Production Other Industry Indicators Feedstocks and Oxygenates Ethane Propane n-Butane n-Butylene Isobutylene ULR Gasoline No. 2 Heating Oil Octane Barrels (Valuation) Pygas LSR Naphtha Gasoil Low Sulfur Residual Fuel Oil Mixed Xylenes Toluene Methanol MTBE Fuel Ethanol Basic Petrochemicals Ethylene Propylene Butadiene Benzene Orthoxylene Paraxylene Monomers and Intermediates Acetone Acrylonitrile Cumene Cyclohexane DMT/PTA Ethylene Dichloride Ethylene Glycol Ethylene Oxide Phenol Phthalic Anhydride Propylene Glycol Propylene Oxide PTA/DMT Styrene Vinyl Chloride Monomer Polymers ABS Acrylic Fiber HDPE LDPE LLDPE Nylon Fiber Polybutadiene Rubber Polyester Resin Polyester Fiber Polyester Film Polypropylene Polystyrene Polyvinyl Chloride SB Rubber/SB Latex Inorganic Chemicals Ammonia Caustic Soda Chlorine Hydrogen Peroxide Soda Ash Sodium Chlorate Sulfur B. Reports, Databases and/or Models Updated On An "As-Needed" Basis (2) Acrylic Acid Activated Alumina Adipic Acid Ammonium Sulfate Aniline Anthraquinone Bisphenol-A Butanediol n-Butanol Butyl Acrylate Calcium Carbonate Caprolactam Carbon Black Chloroprene Rubber Clays Coal Tar Coal Tar Chemicals Corn Starch Corn Sweeteners Cresylic Acids DMT/PTA DOP/DIDP/DBP/DIBP Plasticizers Dextrose Dimethyl Ether Dinitrotoluene EPDM Rubber ETBE EVA/VAE Resins and Adhesives Environmental Technologies 2-Ethyl Hexanol 2-Ethylhexyl Acrylate FCC Catalysts Formaldehyde Fumaric Acid Glycerine Glyoxal Hydrocarbon Resins and Intermediates Hydrochloric Acid Hydrogen Cyanide Industrial Gases Isobutanol Isophthalic Acid Isoprene MDI/PMDI Maleic Anhydride Manganese Chemicals Methyl Ethyl Ketone Methyl Isobutyl Ketone Methyl Isopropyl Ketone Mononitrobenzene Neopentyl Glycol Nitric Acid Nitrile Rubber Other Oxo products Parachlorobenzaldehyde Phenolic Resins Phosgene Phosphoric Acid Polyvinyl Acetate Polyvinylidene Chloride Potash Potassium Carbonate Potassium Hydroxide Potassium Permanganate Precious Metal Catalysts Prenol Pyrethroid Intermediates Resorcinol Resins Rubber Chemicals Sodium Cyanide Sodium Methylate Sodium Sulfate/Sulfite Solvents Soy Protein Binders Styrene Block Copolymers Sulfates/Sulfites Sulfuric Acid Sulfur Dioxide Synthesis Gas Tall Oil and Derivatives Titanium Dioxide Toluene Diamine Toluene Diisocyanate Trimellitic Anhydride Trimethylolpropane Urea Urethane Elastomers Vinyl Acetate Monomer Vinylidene Chloride Waxes White Mineral Oil Zeolite Cats/Adsorbents Zinc Oxide Epoxy Resins Notes: 1. Some multiclient reports are updated semi-annually. Others are updated every two or three years. Some reports have a full, quantitative work-up of supply, production, exports, imports, demand, cost, margin and price, while others only deal with one or two of these. 2. Existing materials may include only a database or cost model, or may include a complete study. Some portions of this information are updated every year or two, while other portions may not have been updated for 10 years. For more information, E-Mail us at info@ProbeEconomics.com Copyright © 2006 Probe Economics Inc. All rights reserved.